Developed by the Columbia Climate School in partnership with The Rockefeller Foundation, the Climate Finance (CliF) Vulnerability Index aims to paint a more comprehensive picture of climate risk by factoring in not just exposure to climate shocks but also financial fragility.
More than 2 billion people live in countries classified as red zone nations — where climate risks are high and the ability to respond effectively is limited.
Climate risk meets financial strain
"Climate shocks are growing more frequent and severe, yet many of the countries facing the greatest threats are also burdened by debt," said Jeff Schlegelmilch, Director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia. "This weakens their access to financial markets, trapping them in a cycle of disaster and recovery."
From floods and cyclones to heatwaves and droughts, the accelerating impacts of global heating are projected to cause $12.5 trillion in global economic losses and over 14.5 million deaths by 2050, according to the World Economic Forum.
At the same time, the UN Environment Programme estimates the annual global shortfall in climate adaptation funding could reach $387 billion.
The researchers say traditional aid models — often based on per-capita GDP — fail to capture the deeper vulnerabilities that arise from climate exposure and restricted access to capital.
"The CliF Index offers a more realistic view of risk, combining environmental exposure with the financial ability to manage it," Schlegelmilch added.
Why are Cyprus and Ukraine on the list?
While the red zone is dominated by sub-Saharan African nations — which account for 66% of the list — both Cyprus and Ukraine are included due to non-climate hazards that nonetheless weaken resilience.
Cyprus appears in three of the four risk scenarios for 2050 and 2080, largely because of its exposure to earthquakes. Ukraine appears in two scenarios, reflecting the impact of ongoing conflict, which strains public finances and undermines long-term climate preparedness.
"These pressures — whether geopolitical or geological — directly affect disaster response and climate adaptation systems," explained a spokesperson for Columbia and Rockefeller Foundation.
Ten African nations consistently rank among the most vulnerable across all risk models: Angola, Burundi, Eritrea, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Malawi, South Sudan, Sudan and Zambia.
Saliem Fakir, Executive Director of the African Climate Foundation, said the findings reinforce calls for "systemic adaptation strategies in debt-distressed African countries."
Europe ranks among best prepared
In contrast, European countries dominate the list of those best equipped to cope with climate shocks, alongside other high-income OECD nations. Countries like Denmark, Estonia, Norway, Switzerland, and Sweden are among the top 10 globally for resilience, along with South Korea, Japan and the United States.
Eric Pelofsky, Vice President for Global Economic Recovery at The Rockefeller Foundation, said the index is a critical tool ahead of next week's Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development in Seville.
"Many nations are living just one disaster away from crisis. The CliF Index helps donors and institutions prioritise those countries most in need of support," he said.
By integrating economic, environmental, and social vulnerabilities, the index offers a new approach to climate risk assessment — one that advocates hope will reshape the way global funding is directed in the face of the climate emergency.