Concerns Grow Over EU Climate Policy Direction After Record 2024 Heat

Environmental groups warn that, despite mounting scientific and real-world evidence of accelerating global warming, the European Commission may be exploring ways to weaken its upcoming climate targets.

Climate advocates and green organizations are calling on the EU to urgently present a long-delayed legislative proposal setting a 2040 greenhouse gas reduction target. Their demands come after a joint report by the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed last year as the hottest on record in Europe.

Under Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s second term, the EU has repeatedly pledged to maintain its climate commitments, aligning with the minimum recommendations of its independent scientific advisory board. This includes a proposed goal of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040.

However, recent developments in Brussels suggest that policymakers may consider allowing member states to rely on international carbon credits to meet part of their emissions targets—effectively outsourcing some reductions outside the EU. Critics argue this could significantly weaken domestic climate action.

Michael Sicaud-Clyet, a climate policy expert at WWF EU, warned that introducing such mechanisms would undermine the EU’s already modest ambitions. “If the Commission is proposing a 90% reduction—already below what is necessary—it should not be considering loopholes like purchasing offsets abroad,” he said. He added that such a move could damage global climate efforts and set a negative international example.

Green Party MEP Michael Bloss also expressed concern, suggesting that political momentum for climate action in Europe is fading despite worsening environmental conditions. He called for a legally binding target of at least 90% emissions reduction by 2040, alongside concrete measures such as phasing out fossil fuels, accelerating renewable energy deployment, eliminating fossil fuel subsidies, and ensuring social fairness.

Doubts Over Carbon Offsetting

Environmental organizations remain highly critical of carbon offset schemes. Carbon Market Watch (CMW) recently analyzed the first project approved under the international carbon credit system agreed at the COP29 summit in Baku. Their findings raised serious concerns about the credibility of such mechanisms.

According to CMW, a project in Myanmar aimed at replacing traditional wood-burning stoves with cleaner alternatives overstated its emissions reduction impact by a factor of 27. Policy director Sam Van den plas described these credits as “largely meaningless,” warning that reliance on such systems could actually increase global emissions rather than reduce them.

“If the EU adopts international carbon credits under the pretext of flexibility, it risks undermining genuine emissions reductions,” Van den plas said.

Germany Pushes for Flexibility

Meanwhile, political shifts in Germany are adding complexity to the debate. As the Green Party exits government, a new coalition between the conservative CDU/CSU bloc and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is advocating for the very flexibilities that environmental groups oppose.

The coalition agreement reaffirms Germany’s commitment to achieving climate neutrality by 2045—five years ahead of the EU’s overall target. It also supports a 90% emissions reduction target at the EU level by 2040, based on 1990 levels.

However, the agreement includes key conditions. Germany does not intend to raise its own 2040 reduction target beyond 88%, and it supports allowing countries to use carbon credits to account for up to three percentage points of their emissions reductions.

The European People’s Party (EPP), the largest political group in the European Parliament, has also endorsed the inclusion of carbon credits. Its environment policy coordinator, Peter Liese, argued that the EU must either lower its climate targets or introduce significant flexibility measures.

Debate Over Targets Intensifies

Liese acknowledged the importance of climate protection but cautioned against policies that could harm Europe’s industrial competitiveness. He described the Commission’s focus on a 90% reduction target as “problematic,” emphasizing the need for a more balanced approach.

He also pointed out that the EU has yet to define its climate targets beyond 2030, putting it behind other major economies such as Japan, the UK, and Brazil. “Many countries, including China and India, are waiting for the EU to set its direction,” Liese said.

Although the European Commission has stated its intention to present a proposal before the summer, the plan does not yet appear on its provisional agenda through the end of June, raising further uncertainty about the timeline.