Extreme Weather Events to Impact 70% of Global Population in Next 20 Years: Study

The research, led by scientists from the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, used large-scale climate model simulations to assess the future of extreme temperature and rainfall patterns.

The study highlights that regions within the tropics and subtropics will likely experience the fastest and most intense changes in weather extremes, particularly with a high-emissions scenario. These changes increase the likelihood of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall, leading to more frequent and severe climate impacts worldwide.

Dr. Carley Iles, the study’s lead author, noted that focusing on regional changes is critical, as these shifts in temperature and precipitation extremes are what people will experience directly. She warned that society is especially vulnerable when multiple hazards, such as heat and flooding, increase simultaneously.

However, the research suggests that if emissions are sufficiently cut to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, the percentage of the population facing these extreme weather events could drop significantly to around 20%.

The study also found that efforts to rapidly reduce air pollution, especially in Asia, could unintentionally accelerate warming in some regions. While reducing air pollution is essential for public health, the reduction in aerosols, which have a cooling effect, could lead to more frequent heat extremes and affect seasonal patterns like the Asian summer monsoons.

Dr. Bjorn H. Samset from CICERO emphasized the urgency of climate adaptation, even in the best-case scenario, as rapid changes will affect at least 1.5 billion people. The study’s findings underscore the need for immediate action to reduce emissions and prepare for more intense climate-related events in the coming decades.