A newly released government assessment concludes that environmental degradation is no longer just a conservation issue, but a strategic risk to prosperity and stability. The analysis finds that biodiversity loss is already contributing to crop failures, more destructive weather events and the spread of infectious diseases.
Without large-scale intervention, the report cautions, these pressures are set to intensify — spilling over into geopolitical tensions, disrupted trade, forced migration and growing competition for dwindling resources.
Food supply vulnerabilities expose the UK
A central concern is Britain's dependence on international supply chains. Roughly 40% of the country's food is imported, with about a quarter coming from European markets. The UK is particularly reliant on overseas producers for fresh fruit, vegetables and sugar, while livestock farming depends heavily on soy shipments from South America.
Domestic agriculture also relies on imported fertilisers to maintain yields and nutritional quality, leaving the sector exposed to global disruptions.
The report warns that biodiversity loss, alongside climate change, poses one of the greatest long-term risks to food production. Degraded soils, declining pollinator populations and more frequent droughts and floods are already undermining resilience.
Officials caution that a collapse of ecosystems would place extreme pressure on farming systems, limiting their ability to adapt to new technologies and practices needed to sustain food supplies. Major shocks to global markets caused by environmental breakdown could rapidly translate into shortages at home.
Rising instability and security risks
Beyond food, the assessment highlights broader societal impacts. Organised crime networks are expected to exploit scarcity by seeking control over limited resources, deepening poverty and inequality.
As food insecurity grows, migration pressures are likely to rise. Previous international studies suggest even small increases in hunger can drive disproportionately large movements of people.
In regions facing shortages of food and water, political polarisation is expected to intensify, leaving communities more vulnerable to natural disasters and misinformation campaigns. The report warns that competition for arable land and freshwater could increase the likelihood of conflict both within countries and across borders, aggravating existing wars.
Such instability may also create openings for non-state actors, including extremist groups, to gain influence and access to scarce resources.
Economic risks are equally stark. Nature underpins the global economy, yet it is finite. Treasury estimates indicate that current patterns of consumption would require the equivalent of more than one and a half Earths to sustain — an unsustainable trajectory that increases the likelihood of future economic shocks.
Calls for urgent government action
Environmental groups say the findings should serve as a turning point for policymakers.
Campaigners argue that stronger enforcement of existing environmental laws is essential, particularly measures designed to curb deforestation linked to UK consumption. While landmark legislation passed in recent years commits the country to halting species decline by 2030, critics say implementation has lagged.
Financial institutions have continued to channel significant investment into companies associated with forest destruction, undermining national pledges to protect ecosystems. Analysts also warn that the UK is falling behind on tree-planting goals, raising concerns that a narrow window to restore woodland and meet climate targets could be missed.
Advocacy groups are calling for tighter controls on imports linked to deforestation and faster rollout of rules that would bar commodities produced on illegally cleared land — with some urging a broader ban covering all deforested areas.
They argue that delays in creating a robust legal framework are increasingly untenable, given the scale of the risks outlined in the government's own assessment.
A wider European challenge
The report underscores that no country is insulated from the cascading effects of biodiversity loss. Across Europe — now the world's fastest-warming continent — climate impacts have already increased food security risks for millions of people.
About one-third of EU territory faces year-round water stress, placing additional strain on agriculture, which accounts for roughly 30% of annual water use.
Like the UK, many European nations depend heavily on imports of staples such as maize, wheat, rice, coffee, cocoa and soy — much of it sourced from climate-vulnerable regions with limited capacity to adapt.
Experts warn that unless governments act decisively to protect ecosystems and strengthen food systems, environmental degradation will continue to amplify insecurity across borders, reshaping global stability in the decades ahead.