Data from C3S shows that the global average surface air temperature in May reached 15.79°C — 0.53°C above the 1991–2020 baseline and around 1.4°C higher than the pre-industrial average (1850–1900).
Although May 2025 interrupted an extraordinary run of 12 consecutive months that exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, scientists warn the pause is likely temporary.
"This breaks an unprecedented streak, but the overall warming trend remains clear," said Carlo Buontempo, Director of C3S at ECMWF. "We fully expect to exceed the 1.5°C threshold again soon."
While the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target is measured as a long-term average, not month-to-month variability, the recent run of record-breaking temperatures has underscored how close the world is to a sustained overshoot.
Drought grips Europe as dry spring intensifies
The extreme heat has been compounded by a lack of rainfall, particularly in northern and central Europe, as well as parts of Türkiye, Ukraine, and southern Russia. Soil moisture and precipitation in northwestern Europe plummeted to their lowest levels since 1979, with spring river flows hitting record lows not seen since monitoring began in 1992.
Between 11 and 20 May, more than half of the land in Europe and the Mediterranean basin faced drought conditions — the highest proportion for that timeframe since the European Drought Observatory began tracking in 2012.
The dry spell has already taken a toll on agriculture. In the UK, the National Farmers' Union warned in early May that crop failures were being reported after one of the driest springs in over a century. Across northern Europe, delayed wheat and corn growth have raised fears of further agricultural disruption.
Economic risks mount
The climate's economic fallout is also growing clearer. In late May, the European Central Bank flagged water scarcity as a key emerging threat, warning that nearly 15% of the eurozone's economic output is at risk due to nature-related stress.
A joint study with the University of Oxford identified water availability as the single greatest environmental risk to the euro area's economy — a sobering conclusion in the face of persistent drought and rising temperatures.